Mesoscale Discussion 0716 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0729 PM CDT Wed May 08 2024 Areas affected...central and northern Arkansas...and western/Middle Tennessee Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 090029Z - 090130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...A band of severe/rotating storms from the Ozarks to far eastern Oklahoma, and developing convection across the western Tennessee area in soon-to-expire WW 209, will require new Tornado Watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Latest Springfield, MO (KSGF) radar loop shows a band of severe/supercell storms moving across south-central Missouri and northwestern Arkansas. Meanwhile, convection is gradually increasing farther east, across western Tennessee. The airmass across this region remains very unstable, with mixed-layer CAPE in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. This should be more than sufficient to sustain vigorous updrafts, support CAM runs which increase convective coverage over the next several hours. Strong deep-layer winds will support organized convection, with an all-hazards severe risk likely to continue through the evening and into the overnight hours -- warranting new tornado watch issuance across this region. ..Goss/Hart.. 05/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...SHV... LAT...LON 36399273 36599029 36568440 35438492 34898810 34779015 33939349 34739361 36399273