Mesoscale Discussion 0701
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0116 PM CDT Wed May 08 2024
Areas affected...much of eastern Oklahoma...western Arkansas...and
far northeast Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely
Valid 081816Z - 082045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered severe storms with very large hail and a few
tornadoes (possibly strong) are expected by late afternoon from
eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas, and into parts of northern
Texas.
DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery as well as surface
observations show a cold front extending from far southeast KS and
northeast OK southward toward the Red River. Additionally, a dryline
extends roughly from just west of the Metroplex southwestward
towards Del Rio TX.
A very moist and unstable air mass exists across the region, with
MLCAPE of 3500-4000 J/kg common. Low-level convergence continues to
increase along the boundaries, with winds gusting to 15-20 kt out of
the west behind them.
Effective deep-layer shear of 45-50 kt across the entire length of
the boundaries, combined with the very strong instability will favor
the development of scattered supercells, potentially producing 3-4"
diameter hail by early evening. Tornadoes, a few of which may be
strong, will also be possible given the tremendous thermodynamic
energy, favorable storm mode, and sufficient 0-1 SRH over 100 m2/s2.
..Jewell/Smith.. 05/08/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 36299547 36729507 36949473 36999410 36959361 36879331
36629325 36329333 35279388 33749495 33029562 32959630
33249665 33939658 34979612 36299547