Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 698

   Mesoscale Discussion 0698
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1135 AM CDT Wed May 08 2024

   Areas affected...Southeast MO...southern IL...and far western KY

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 204...

   Valid 081635Z - 081800Z

   CORRECTED FOR WATCH NUMBER

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 204 continues.

   SUMMARY...Tornado threat is increasing across southeast Missouri,
   into southern Illinois, and far western Kentucky. This will include
   potential for cyclical tornadogenesis and a strong (EF2-EF3)
   tornado.

   DISCUSSION...Long-lived/tracked supercell centered on northern
   Crawford/southern Franklin counties in MO as of 1620Z has fully
   transitioned from earlier elevated character to surface-based.
   Measured severe gusts up to 58 kt have been reported in the past
   hour at the Vichy ASOS. It will likely persist along the composite
   outflow that extends southeastward, where additional supercells are
   maturing in far southern IL. The strongest low-level flow across the
   region remains in southern MO per SGF VWP data, with somewhat weaker
   but more veering with height over the MS/OH Valley confluence per
   the PAH VWP data. This will yield an STP environment of 1-3 across
   the region, supportive of a strong tornado. Overall convective mode
   will probably become increasingly complex with time as considerable
   storm-scale consolidation occurs through the afternoon, but
   occasional attempts at tornadogenesis should occur with multiple
   embedded supercells.

   ..Grams.. 05/08/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...

   LAT...LON   38429142 38489045 38198884 37858812 37308770 36898792
               36738829 36798878 37269021 37899159 38429142