Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 695

   Mesoscale Discussion 0695
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0956 AM CDT Wed May 08 2024

   Areas affected...Eastern TN and western NC

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 203...

   Valid 081456Z - 081630Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 203
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A pair of supercells will pose threats for large hail of
   1-1.75 inches in diameter and damaging winds from 55-70 mph as they
   likely persist east-southeast across the remainder of eastern
   Tennessee and into western North Carolina.

   DISCUSSION...A pair of long-lived supercells, the easternmost of
   which appears to be the more intense of the two, are steadily
   tracking east-southeast across eastern TN. The downstream air mass
   continues to destabilize, with surface temperatures having warmed
   through the 60s to low 70s over the Great Smoky and Blue Ridge
   Mountains, and through the 70s to low 80s across the adjacent
   Piedmont. This will support the eastern extension of the TN Valley
   buoyancy plume which was characterized by MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg
   per the 12Z BNA sounding. While low-level shear will remain weak per
   MRX VWP data, strong mid to upper-level westerlies will support
   persistence of discrete supercells which may consolidate into a
   cluster as they emerge east of the higher terrain in the early
   afternoon.

   ..Grams.. 05/08/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RNK...GSP...MRX...

   LAT...LON   36398306 36248183 35908136 35668125 35248147 35138202
               35268304 35508386 35738461 36048458 36398306