Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 692

   Mesoscale Discussion 0692
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0614 AM CDT Wed May 08 2024

   Areas affected...Eastern Kansas...Central and Western Missouri

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 081114Z - 081315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...The threat for large hail will likely continue, as storm
   coverage gradually expands over the next couple of hours from
   eastern Kansas into western and central Missouri. New weather watch
   issuance may be needed within the next 1 to 2 hours.

   DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery from Topeka, KS shows a small
   cluster of strong to severe storms across far eastern Kansas. This
   convection is expected to continue to increase in coverage,
   developing eastward into west-central Missouri. The storms are
   located along the northern edge of moderate instability, where the
   RAP has MUCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. In addition, RAP
   forecast soundings in the vicinity have effective shear near 60
   knots, with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 8.5 C/km. This will support
   elevated supercells capable of an isolated large hail threat. The
   threat should increase as the storms move eastward along a strong
   gradient of instability, into western and central Missouri over the
   next few hours.

   ..Broyles/Edwards.. 05/08/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   37769226 38139189 38579188 38859203 38979251 38849468
               38589542 38189555 37839527 37739411 37769226