US Mesoscale Discussions

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 688

   Mesoscale Discussion 0688
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1107 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024

   Areas affected...Northeast Texas into Northeast Arkansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 080407Z - 080600Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Storm maturation/intensity remains uncertain, but the
   environment would support large hail, isolated severe gusts, and a
   low-end tornado risk.

   DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, IR satellite shows deepening
   cumulus clouds with some having produced lightning recently. This
   development is occurring along the the diffuse cold front.
   Convergence along this boundary is quite weak and the low-level jet
   is not expected to be overly strong as well. Further, upper-level
   forcing will be nebulous at best. All that said, it is not clear
   whether convection will be able to mature/intensify. The observed
   00Z LZK sounding showed over 2500 J/kg with 46 kts of effective
   shear. Should development occur, the environment would be supportive
   of large hail (perhaps up to 2 in.), isolated severe gusts, and
   perhaps a tornado. The tornado threat will be somewhat conditional
   as CIN will increase with time, though slowly given how moist the
   environment is. Given the uncertainties and likely limited storm
   coverage, a watch is not currently anticipated. Trends will continue
   to be monitored, however.

   ..Wendt/Hart.. 05/08/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   33529285 32579496 32639556 32979582 33859523 34469398
               34639363 35919164 36279074 36049043 35819028 35469030
               35029060 33529285 

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