Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 683

   Mesoscale Discussion 0683
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0546 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024

   Areas affected...Southern Lower MI...Northeast IN...Northwest OH

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 196...

   Valid 072246Z - 080015Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 196 continues.

   SUMMARY...Supercells will spread northeast this evening. Tornado
   threat continues, along with large hail.

   DISCUSSION...Exit region of mid-level speed max is spreading across
   the central Great Lakes region early this evening. Approaching short
   wave/speed max is contributing to a slow northward advance of
   surface warm front that currently drapes across northern OH into
   southern MI. No less than half a dozen long-lived supercells are
   currently noted near this warm front, several of which are, or have
   been tornadic. Additionally, very large hail has been noted at
   times. This activity will continue spreading northeast over the next
   few hours. Greatest tornado threat will be near and just south of
   this warm front as buoyancy drops considerably north of the wind
   shift.

   A bit south of the warm front, discrete supercells are gradually
   increasing in intensity across eastern IN. Longer-lived updrafts
   will spread into the OH portion of ww196 in the next 1-2 hours.

   ..Darrow.. 05/07/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...

   LAT...LON   40608515 43108537 43118340 40618326 40608515