Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 680

   Mesoscale Discussion 0680
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0333 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024

   Areas affected...southern Lower MI...eastern IN...western OH...far
   northern KY

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 072033Z - 072200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...As supercells spread quickly east-northeast from southern
   Lower MI and northwest IN, an additional tornado watch/watches will
   be needed prior to 22Z. This may also include a combined/separate
   watch farther south in eastern IN/western OH ahead of supercells
   intensifying over the Wabash Valley.

   DISCUSSION...As mentioned in MCD 0679, an increasingly favorable
   setup for supercells, a couple of which may be long-tracked, is
   underway across northwest IN to the Wabash Valley. The northern
   storms may being to outpace the rapid boundary-layer
   warming/moistening that is occurring across northeast IN and
   northwest OH into southern Lower MI. Nevertheless, the intense
   mid-level jet will likely foster sustained supercells even as they
   become slightly elevated towards southeast Lower MI. With backed
   low-level flow and ample low-level shear (per IWX VWP data), the
   tornado threat will remain prominent with any supercells along and
   south of the surface warm front. A couple strong tornadoes are
   possible.

   ..Grams/Smith.. 05/07/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CLE...JKL...ILN...DTX...LMK...IWX...GRR...IND...

   LAT...LON   42758544 42698458 41898367 41398340 40538329 38478394
               38308491 38688589 41048526 42758544