Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 663

   Mesoscale Discussion 0663
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0743 PM CDT Mon May 06 2024

   Areas affected...Northwest into central OK

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 189...

   Valid 070043Z - 070215Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 189 continues.

   SUMMARY...An uptick in strong tornado potential is expected through
   and beyond 9 PM CDT.

   DISCUSSION...A southwest to northeast corridor of supercells has
   become established from west-central into north-central OK. Midlevel
   mesocyclones with the cells across Blaine and Kingfisher County have
   intensified this evening as they have moved into an environment
   characterized by increasing low-level moisture (with dewpoints near
   70 F), strong to extreme instability, and strengthening low-level
   flow/shear as noted on the KTLX and KVNX VWPs. The cell over
   Garfield County earlier produced a tornado, and tornado potential
   with the other storms along this corridor will increase as they move
   eastward this evening. 

   The 00Z OUN sounding depicts a volatile environment, with MLCAPE in
   excess of 3500 J/kg, effective shear of around 60 kt, and 0-1 km SRH
   in excess of 300 m2/s2. Low-level flow/shear will continue to
   increase through the evening, becoming even more favorable for
   strong to intense tornadoes. The primary uncertainty this evening is
   the cluster storm mode that has developed, but the ongoing cell
   south of Enid and the trailing cell over Custer County will both
   have an opportunity to move through a very favorable environment
   through 9 PM CDT.

   ..Dean.. 05/07/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

   LAT...LON   35279944 35729903 36509814 36889766 36799661 35969711
               35319777 35239898 35279944