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Mesoscale Discussion 662 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0662 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Mon May 06 2024 Areas affected...Northwest and west-central Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 070036Z - 070230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...A tornado watch will likely be needed this evening as storms move into western portions of Missouri. QLCS tornadoes and damaging winds are the expected primary hazards. DISCUSSION...A linear segment east of Concordia, KS will continue northeast this evening. This activity may reach northwest Missouri between 8:30-9 PM CDT based on current projections. As upper-level forcing continues to push eastward into the overnight, the expectation is for additional storms to form along the composite dryline/Pacific front later this evening. Those storms would likely impact portions of western Missouri. Low-level hodographs on the KEAX VAD already show sufficient shear for rotating storms. This shear is expected to increase as the low-level jet strengthens and shifts eastward -- KTWX to the west already is showing 50 kts between 1-2 km. While the overall tornado risk will be somewhat mitigated by a linear storm mode, QLCS tornadoes will still be possible as will damaging wind gusts. A tornado watch will likely be issued in the next 1-2 hours. ..Wendt/Guyer.. 05/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP... LAT...LON 39929534 40329559 40549519 40519428 40079333 39419283 38929307 38339393 38179431 38299478 39929534 |
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