Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 660

   Mesoscale Discussion 0660
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0553 PM CDT Mon May 06 2024

   Areas affected...Central into northeast Kansas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 187...189...190...

   Valid 062253Z - 070030Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 187, 189, 190 continues.

   SUMMARY...An increase in the tornado threat will likely occur as the
   low-level jet increases in eastern Kansas this evening. The
   magnitude of this threat will be conditional on maintaining at least
   quasi-discrete storms. QLCS tornadoes will still be possible within
   any linear segments.

   DISCUSSION...Winds aloft have remained backed enough to keep storms
   in central Kansas quasi-discrete. Very-large hail has been the
   primary threat with these storms thus far (reports of 2.5-3 in.).
   Regional VAD profiles show the low-level jet at 45-50 kts currently.
   The jet should intensify this evening, especially within eastern
   Kansas. The primary question is whether storms will remain discrete
   beyond 00Z. Continued mid-level height falls this evening could be
   enough to increase convective coverage such that a more linear mode
   develops. The greatest threat for tornadoes, especially strong
   tornadoes, will depend on maintaining discrete storms. Given the
   strength of the low-level jet, it is possible that some discrete
   storms could develop ahead of this line due to warm advection. Even
   with a more linear mode, however, severe wind gusts and QLCS
   tornadoes would still be possible.

   ..Wendt.. 05/06/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

   LAT...LON   38939828 39499769 39779613 39509564 38749524 38309556
               37799716 37709857 38939828