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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 659

Mesoscale Discussion 659
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0659
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0542 PM CDT Mon May 06 2024

   Areas affected...West-central into northwest/north-central
   OK...extreme south-central KS

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 189...

   Valid 062242Z - 070015Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 189 continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for strong and potentially long-tracked
   tornadoes is expected to increase into this evening. Very large hail
   will also be possible with any supercell.

   DISCUSSION...Three mature supercells are ongoing across northwest OK
   as of 5:30 PM CDT. Initial development occurred in an environment
   characterized by warm temperatures (well into the 80s F) and
   dewpoints generally in the mid 60s F. However, dewpoints downstream
   of the ongoing cells into north-central OK are in the upper 60s to
   near 70F, supporting even greater buoyancy (MLCAPE of 3000-4000
   J/kg) and a more favorable thermodynamic environment for tornadoes.
   In addition, VWP data from KOUN and KVNX depict a notable increase
   in low-level flow over the last hour, with some modest backing of
   surface winds noted in recent Oklahoma Mesonet data. 0-1 km SRH of
   around 200 m2/s2 was noted in the 21Z OUN sounding, with values
   expected to increase above 300 m2/s2 into this evening. The
   combination of strengthening low-level shear and strong to extreme
   instability will support a rapid increase in potential for strong
   and possibly long-tracked tornadoes as storms spread
   east-northeastward this evening. 

   In addition to the tornado threat, very large hail and localized
   severe gusts will also remain possible. Additional development
   southwest of the ongoing supercells remains possible with time this
   evening, as the low-level jet continues to increase.

   ..Dean.. 05/06/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   35699931 36929848 37279802 37189762 36459758 36129773
               35549798 35419847 35379900 35389932 35479963 35699931 

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