Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 655

   Mesoscale Discussion 0655
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0335 PM CDT Mon May 06 2024

   Areas affected...Northwest OK

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 189...

   Valid 062035Z - 062130Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 189 continues.

   SUMMARY...Initial supercell development across northwest Oklahoma
   will pose a primary near-term risk for large to very large hail.
   Tornado threat should increase rapidly towards 5 to 6 pm.

   DISCUSSION...Most prominent convective development on the dryline
   south of KS has been in the Ellis county vicinity of northwest OK.
   Additional cells should form farther south towards I-40 based on the
   agitated CU field noted in the southeast TX Panhandle. These cells
   will likely evolve into long-track supercells as they mature with a
   primary initial threat of large to very large hail. OK-Mesonet
   surface observations confirm the leading edge of upper 60s dew
   points are along a line from roughly Tipton to Lahoma. As these
   cells impinge on the greater low-level buoyancy and stronger
   low-level shear over central OK (per comparison of FDR/TLX/VNX VWP
   data), potential for tornadoes will increase substantially during
   the early evening. This scenario is supported by recent WoFS
   guidance.

   ..Grams.. 05/06/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...

   LAT...LON   36819942 36909870 36869813 36739779 36519757 35839780
               35489829 35399884 35339934 35389980 35849993 36359966
               36819942