Mesoscale Discussion 0644 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Areas affected...South Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 186... Valid 052146Z - 052315Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 186 continues. SUMMARY...An organized/bowing cluster of storms over South Texas will continue to pose local risk for hail and damaging wind gusts. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows bowing cluster of strong storms moving southeastward across Deep South Texas at around 25 kt. The storms are being fed by around 30 kt southeasterly low-level inflow per the latest CRP WSR-88D VWP, which -- along with ample downstream instability -- suggests that the storms will be sustained over the next hour or two, with continued southeastward movement. With that said, indications are that capping is stronger to the south, which may hinder the advance of the convection on the southern end to some degree. As such, while storms are on a trajectory to move into portions of the BRO CWA, new WW south of the existing watch may not be needed, though we will continue to monitor convective evolution in the near term, in that regard. ..Goss.. 05/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO... LAT...LON 27889950 28489860 28299724 27759679 26749721 27049864 27499915 27889950