Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 643

   Mesoscale Discussion 0643
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0314 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024

   Areas affected...Northeast TX/southeast OK into northern LA and
   southern/central AR

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 052014Z - 052215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Some threat for a brief tornado or two could evolve late
   this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Clearing in the wake of earlier convection is allowing
   for airmass recovery across northern LA and southern AR. Persistent
   low-level theta-e advection in advance of a weak surface low across
   northeast TX may allow for storm redevelopment later this afternoon,
   within an effective warm frontal zone. With some midlevel drying
   expected in the wake of the ejecting shortwave trough across AR, the
   number and intensity of storms later this afternoon remains
   uncertain. However, increasing moisture/instability and relatively
   favorable low-level shear/SRH (as noted on the KSHV and KLZK VWPs)
   could support brief tornado potential with any longer-lived cells
   late this afternoon into early evening. Isolated hail and gusty
   winds will also be possible. 

   At this time, the threat is expected to remain rather marginal and
   isolated, rendering the need for watch issuance uncertain. Trends
   will be closely monitored for the development of a supercell or two
   later this afternoon.

   ..Dean/Smith.. 05/05/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...

   LAT...LON   32409427 32499497 33299518 34129536 34329461 34869290
               34099140 33459123 32979126 32149166 31889191 31709220
               31829266 31979300 32149349 32309394 32409427