Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 640

   Mesoscale Discussion 0640
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1212 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024

   Areas affected...Central/eastern OH...western PA...northern WV
   Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 051712Z - 051945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A few strong storms are possible this afternoon. Isolated
   damaging wind is expected to be the primary threat, along with hail
   approaching severe limits.

   DISCUSSION...A couple of storms have recently developed along a cold
   front across northeast OH. Modest heating of a relatively moist
   environment will support moderate destabilization (MLCAPE generally
   1000-1500 J/kg) along/ahead of the cold front this afternoon. While
   stronger ascent associated with a shortwave trough over parts of
   Ontario and Quebec will stay north of the region, weakening CINH
   will support some increase in storm coverage with time. 

   With only modest midlevel flow across the region, effective shear is
   expected to remain relatively weak (generally 20-25 kt), and storms
   will likely struggle to become organized. However, a few stronger
   multicells could eventually evolve with time. Locally gusty winds
   will be possible with the stronger cells, especially where stronger
   heating occurs this afternoon. Also, despite the weak deep-layer
   shear, moderate buoyancy and relatively cool temperatures aloft will
   support potential for small to near-severe hail.

   ..Dean/Smith.. 05/05/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

   LAT...LON   39808335 40328271 41408140 42028042 42048025 41757947
               41057895 40147930 39808013 39518163 39368262 39408287
               39808335