Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 634

   Mesoscale Discussion 0634
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0403 AM CDT Sat May 02 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of the eastern FL Panhandle and FL Big Bend
   region

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 020903Z - 021100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Some uptick in severe potential is possible through dawn.

   DISCUSSION...Cooling cloud tops and an increase in lightning
   activity have been noted with early-morning thunderstorms offshore
   of southeast LA to near coastal parts of the FL Panhandle. Inland
   areas of the FL Panhandle and Big Bend are still north of a nearly
   stationary front, with the bulk of the ongoing deeper convection
   being somewhat elevated. 

   Ascent attendant to a midlevel shortwave trough moving across the
   central Gulf Coast region will help to maintain convection through
   the morning. While much of the convection may tend to remain
   elevated through the early morning, MUCAPE increasing to near/above
   500 J/kg and strong deep-layer shear will support at least transient
   storm organization, and localized damaging-wind potential.
   Short-term guidance suggests the surface boundary may approach
   near-coastal areas, with relatively strong 3-hour pressure falls
   observed at KAAF supporting this possibility. Some potential for a
   waterspout/brief tornado could evolve where the stronger convection
   can interact with the front near the coast. 

   Given the current marginal and isolated nature of the threat,
   short-term watch issuance is unlikely. There remains some potential
   for the effective warm front to eventually move across a larger
   portion of the Big Bend and north FL later this morning, with a
   corresponding increase in the severe threat.

   ..Dean/Mosier.. 05/02/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TAE...

   LAT...LON   30078558 30228446 30148378 29978345 29708365 29728416
               29628452 29568484 29468514 29488551 30078558 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH