US Mesoscale Discussions

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 634

   Mesoscale Discussion 0634
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0631 PM CDT Sat May 04 2024

   Areas of western and central Texas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 184...

   Valid 042331Z - 050130Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 184 continues.

   SUMMARY...Isolated supercells, posing all-hazards severe risk, are
   ongoing in/near Tornado Watch 184.  Later, upscale growth/expansion
   of storms is expected, which is likely to eventually require
   new/downstream WW issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Latest KMAF radar loop shows a persistent supercell
   moving southeastward across Pecos county, which has produced
   previous tornadoes and currently appears likely to be producing very
   large hail.  A second supercell which has developed more recently is
   moving along the Midland/Upton County border, and also poses an
   all-hazards risk in the short term.

   Meanwhile, convection is increasing in coverage farther east,
   including a longer-lived storm now over northern portions of Coleman
   and Brown counties.  With time, CAMs suggest upscale growth emerging
   from within the broader area of storms, and shifting eastward as an
   at least semi-organized MCS.  This seems plausible, given a fairly
   well-defined vort max aloft moving across southeastern New Mexico
   and Far West Texas, and an associated increase in a southeasterly
   low-level jet expected to occur this evening.  Resulting QG ascent,
   combined with the favorably moist/unstable environment downstream,
   should act to sustain convection and associated expansion of severe
   risk east of the existing WW.  A new WW will likely need to be
   considered -- perhaps earlier than optimal due to the proximity of
   the convective increase in the Coleman/Brown county area and
   vicinity to the eastern edges of WW 183 and 184.

   ..Goss.. 05/04/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   30230290 30750344 31760221 32129930 32159803 31209732
               29859737 29519841 29310085 30230290 

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