Mesoscale Discussion 0633
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1207 PM CDT Fri May 01 2026
Areas affected...portions of southeastern Louisiana into extreme
southern Mississippi
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 011707Z - 011900Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon across
much of southern Louisiana. A couple of stronger storms may bring
some potential for isolated severe hazards, including marginally
severe hail, severe wind gusts, and a brief tornado, to portions of
southeastern Louisiana.
DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar imagery depicts ongoing
thunderstorms along/south of the Louisiana coastline, with a
stronger core currently noted south of Vermilion Parish, ahead of a
subtle (and potentially convectively-enhanced) mid-level
perturbation analyzed over eastern Texas. This convection is located
in close proximity to the analyzed location of a surface stationary
front, with latest mesoanalysis depicting 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE south
of this boundary, with little buoyancy to its north. Strong
mid/upper level flow (60+ kts at 5 km AGL per the HDC VWP) and
effective bulk shear of 60+ kts will support the potential for
supercell structures, with Bunker's motion favoring right-moving
supercell tracks along/parallel to the surface boundary. While weak
available buoyancy and marginal mid-level lapse rates (evident in
the 12z LIX observed sounding) are likely to limit the overall
severe potential, isolated marginally severe hail and strong wind
gusts (likely within the 40-50 mph range) are possible with stronger
cores that come onshore and/or persist on the cool side of the
boundary.
A brief tornado/waterspout may also be possible, especially along
and south of the surface boundary where organized storms may better
realize surface-based buoyancy. A gradual strengthening of low-level
southerly flow is anticipated with time later this afternoon/evening
ahead of a developing surface cyclone, and this should promote at
least some increase in low-level hodograph curvature and associated
tornado risk with time. Despite this, low-level shear is forecast to
remain modest at best. When coupled with the aforementioned
marginally-favorable thermodynamic environment, this is expected to
limit the overall severe threat. Trends will continue to be
monitored, but watch issuance is not expected at this time.
..Chalmers/Smith.. 05/01/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...
LAT...LON 29169149 29299180 29499185 29769123 29969031 30088919
30058873 29938856 29058897 28868921 28858976 29009074
29169149
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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