Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 632

   Mesoscale Discussion 0632
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0353 PM CDT Sat May 04 2024

   Areas affected...eastern Oklahoma...northern Arkansas...and
   southern-east-central Missouri

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 042053Z - 042230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered strong thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
   and evening from eastern Oklahoma across northern Arkansas and into
   Misosuri.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have developed along and ahead
   of a cold front from eastern Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas and
   into Missouri. The airmass ahead of this cold front is moderately
   unstable with MLCAPE around 1500 to 2000 J/kg. Effective shear is
   relatively weak (<30 knots per SPC mesoanalysis), but VWPs closer to
   the cold front (INX and SGF) are sampling greater 0-6 km shear
   between 25 and 30 knots. This, in addition to low-level convergence,
   will support more robust updrafts near the cold front. A few strong
   to isolated severe storms will be possible this afternoon. However,
   height rises and broad synoptic scale subsidence should preclude a 
   more organized severe weather threat and the need for a watch.

   ..Bentley/Smith.. 05/04/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...OUN...

   LAT...LON   34759676 36299458 37879291 38589225 38999092 38509013
               35279027 34599085 34189229 34139574 34229611 34759676