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Mesoscale Discussion 0625
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0626 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
Areas affected...Far eastern Mississippi into central Alabama
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 292326Z - 300130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A few strong to severe thunderstorms appear plausible
across far eastern Mississippi into central Alabama as a front
pushes south. Confidence in the coverage of thunderstorms is
uncertain, and watch issuance is not expected at this time.
DISCUSSION...Shallow convection has been percolating across central
to northeast AL over the past hour, likely being driven by low-level
ascent along a southward moving cold front. This front is migrating
towards a fairly unstable air mass across central AL where
temperatures remain in the upper 70s, MLCAPE has recently been
analyzed near 2000 J/kg, and mid/upper-level flow is between 50-60
knots (per regional VWPs).
Given these trends, development along the front appears plausible in
the coming hours and may pose some threat for severe hail and wind.
Latest high-res guidance suggests the favorable convective
environment across central AL will likely linger through 02 UTC,
though the overall updraft/UH signal in these solutions appears
modest (including output from the typically bullish RRFS), possibly
due to somewhat weak low-level convergence along the front.
Consequently, confidence in the severe threat is limited and watch
issuance is not anticipated, but trends will be monitored.
..Moore/Hart.. 04/29/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...JAN...
LAT...LON 32498814 32538842 32698858 32938870 33238866 33478846
34548607 34608574 34548554 34398547 34108545 33788551
33508570 33378581 32898661 32658750 32498814
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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