Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 620

   Mesoscale Discussion 0620
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0727 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024

   Areas affected...western North Texas into adjacent southwestern
   Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 040027Z - 040230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Ongoing convection across North Texas -- from west of
   Childress to the Wichita Falls/Jacksboro/Mineral Wells vicinity --
   may expand in coverage/intensity over the next couple of hours.  New
   WW issuance could become necessary, if convection can organize
   further.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of northeastward-moving storms west of
   Childress will soon exit Tornado Watch 178.  Some model signal is
   evident that the storms could persist -- and even grow upscale a bit
   -- over the next couple of hours.  The currently observed
   environment -- mixed-layer CAPE near or exceeding 3000 J/kg -- would
   certainly support this potential.  While shear remains somewhat
   modest, veering winds with height are providing ample shear for
   mid-level updraft rotation.  Additionally, other storms from near
   Wichita Falls south to near Mineral Wells -- within generally the
   same background environment -- have also maintained intensity.

   We will continue to monitor convective evolution in the short term. 
   Signs of increased coverage or upscale growth of this convection
   could warrant WW consideration.

   ..Goss/Guyer.. 05/04/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   34120118 34810004 35129893 34949794 34469706 33629674
               32589790 32609850 34120118