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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 617

Mesoscale Discussion 617
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0617
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0531 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024

   Areas affected...Western and central Nebraska/Kansas border

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 032231Z - 040000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Large hail and damaging winds are possible as storms
   continue south-southeastward near the Kansas/Nebraska border. Though
   low, a tornado could also occur with stronger, discrete storms. A
   watch is possible within the next 1-2 hours.

   DISCUSSION...Surface moisture continues to return into southern
   Nebraska. Convection in the vicinity of North Platte has deepened
   over the last 30 minutes as result. With an expected increase in
   low-level southerly winds over the next few hours, low 50s F
   dewpoints will likely push into southern Nebraska ahead of the
   approaching cold front. Convection that can mature will likely be
   sustained by the low-level jet. Large hail and damaging winds will
   likely be the primary threats. Surface dewpoint depressions are
   enough that the tornado threat should remain low. However, low-level
   hodograph curvature will increase this evening and discrete storms
   near the theta-e gradient will pose some tornado risk. A watch is
   possible within the next 1-2 hours.

   ..Wendt.. 05/03/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   40820211 41210153 40869836 40299745 39699771 39209888
               39100085 39320174 40050249 40820211 

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