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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 615

Mesoscale Discussion 615
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0615
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0309 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024

   Areas affected...Far northeastern Colorado and western Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 032009Z - 032145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop across
   parts of western and northwestern Nebraska, and far northeastern
   Colorado through this afternoon. Severe wind gusts of 55 to 70 mph
   and large hail near 1.25 to 1.75 inches will be possible.

   DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations and visible satellite
   imagery indicate a cold front advancing southward across the
   panhandle of Nebraska and into far northeastern Colorado. Strong
   linear forcing along this front, along with increasing large scale
   ascent above it via DCVA accompanying a mid to upper shortwave
   trough, has resulted in thunderstorm development. The current
   environment preceding the front is characterized by effective shear
   magnitudes near 40 kt and MUCAPE near 1000 J/kg. Dewpoints well
   ahead of the front across the high plains of eastern CO and west
   central KS are in the low 50s, along with temperatures in the low to
   mid 70s, where buoyancy is increasing under steep mid level lapse
   rates around 8-8.5 C/km. This environment will continue to advance
   northward with time ahead of the front with low-level moisture
   advection. Therefore, expect an increase in organized severe
   convection over the next 1-2 hours with a threat of large hail and
   damaging winds.

   ..Barnes/Squitieri/Smith.. 05/03/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   40110221 40190355 40700374 41330288 41850231 42050239
               42210205 42230137 42200102 42150058 42030023 41759992
               41509986 41270002 40900030 40580056 40160104 40110221 

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