Mesoscale Discussion 0615
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1021 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
Areas affected...northeast Texas...far southwest Arkansas...and
northwest Louisiana
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 291521Z - 291715Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Severe-weather potential is expected to increase across
the discussion area this morning with the primary hazards being
large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts. Convective trends
are being monitored for a possible watch.
DISCUSSION...A small cluster of elevated thunderstorms has persisted
this morning in far northeast TX, west of Texarkana, with recent
intensification noted in a couple of the cells. While forcing for
ascent remains nebulous, the 12z FWD sounding sampled a weakly
capped and strongly unstable environment (MUCAPE of 3000-3500 J/kg)
for parcels lifted from around 850 mb. Moreover, the kinematic
environment from that sounding featured an effective bulk shear
magnitude of 60+ kt, more than supportive of supercell storm modes,
especially given the strong buoyancy.
A number of CAMs suggest the continued intensification of the
ongoing storms into supercells by late morning or early afternoon
with subsequent upscale growth into a surface-based line of storms
as the activity crosses the surface cold front and roots in the very
moist and unstable air mass south of the boundary. In that scenario,
large to very large hail (2-3" in diameter) will be the primary
hazard initially, with damaging wind gusts becoming more likely as
storms become surface based, and a more organized cold pool can
develop.
Convective trends are being monitored for further storm
intensification, which would necessitate a watch issuance.
..Mead.. 04/29/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...
LAT...LON 33319645 33769569 33519420 32679265 32239214 31709242
31529311 31399369 31639434 32289576 32649628 33319645
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
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