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Mesoscale Discussion 608 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0608 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0608 PM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Areas affected...Central/South-Central OK Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 022308Z - 030115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated large hail up to 1" in diameter is possible across portion of central and south-central Oklahoma this evening. DISCUSSION...Recent radar and visible satellite imagery has shown some modest increase in both thunderstorm coverage and intensity over central OK during the past half hour or so, some of which occurred along the cold front and some of which developed to the southeast of a weak frontal low. The air mass is uncapped and moderately buoyant, so some additional thunderstorm development is anticipated across the region as the cold front slowly pushes southward/southeastward. A predominately multicellular mode is anticipated but moderate vertical shear (i.e. around 35-40 kt of effective bulk shear) is in place across the region, which should be sufficient for a few more organized storm structures. Consequently, some isolated hail up to 1" in diameter appears possible this evening with any of the more mature/organized storms. Overall severe coverage is expected to remain isolated, likely precluding the need for a watch. However, convective trends across the region are being monitored closely. ..Mosier/Guyer.. 05/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... LAT...LON 35189897 36029774 35949629 34659634 34069708 34179834 34519901 35189897 |
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