Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 607

   Mesoscale Discussion 0607
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0535 PM CDT Thu May 02 2024

   Areas affected...Northwest TX into Southwest TX into the TX Hill
   Country

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 177...

   Valid 022235Z - 030000Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 177
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Supercells capable of very large hail up to 2-3" in
   diameter and gusts up to 75 mph remain possible. Additional
   development is possible over the Texas Hill Country and trends will
   be monitored for additional watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery depicts two mature supercells,
   one in King County and the other farther south in Runnels County.
   Visible satellite imagery reveals several attempts at additional
   development between these two mature storms. Environmental
   conditions support supercells and the general expectation is for the
   newer development to mature. Primary severe risk with these storms
   is very large hail around 2" to 3" in diameter. A few damaging gusts
   up to 75 mph are possible as well. 

   Farther south (from southwest TX into the TX Hill Country), cumulus
   has been gradually deepening, although convective
   initiation/lightning has not been realized. The mesoscale
   environment in this area will be influenced by a westward-moving
   outflow boundary, which could provide the additional lift needed for
   convective initiation. Large to very hail is possible with new
   updrafts. However, cooler temperatures behind the outflow could act
   as a deterrent for sustained development, and the overall
   longevity/severity of this newer development is uncertain. Some
   initiation is possible south of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 177, and
   convective trends will be monitored closely in this area for
   additional watch issuance.

   ..Mosier/Guyer.. 05/02/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...

   LAT...LON   30330071 31780037 33900003 33529859 29369895 28799982
               29350051 30330071