Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 604

   Mesoscale Discussion 0604
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0526 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

   Areas affected...Extreme northeast Arkansas and the Missouri
   Bootheel

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 174...

   Valid 282226Z - 290000Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 174 continues.

   SUMMARY...A supercell migrating across far southeast Missouri and
   northeast Arkansas may pose a locally higher severe threat over the
   next 1-2 hours.

   DISCUSSION...Surface observations across the MS Valley show a
   stationary boundary/outflow draped across northern AR into KY. A
   supercell with a history of producing severe hail and gusts up to 70
   mph is approaching this boundary from the northwest along the
   eastern MO/AR border. Although MRMS 50 dBz echo tops depict a recent
   weakening trend with this storm, regional radar imagery has recently
   begun to sample strengthening mid-level flow within the storm
   (though precise feature identification is difficult given the
   storm's distance from the nearest RDA). Further intensification
   appears possible as the storm reaches the boundary where low-level
   SRH is enhanced and a more moist/buoyant air mass resides on the
   immediate warm side. This may support a localized corridor of higher
   severe hail, wind, and tornado potential within the next 1-2 hours.

   ..Moore.. 04/28/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...

   LAT...LON   36058967 36099003 36279055 36439072 36639071 36759053
               36849028 36818940 36668909 36518911 36288919 36148941
               36058967 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN