Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 57

   Mesoscale Discussion 0057
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0955 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

   Areas affected...southern AL...FL Panhandle...southwest GA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 251555Z - 251800Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe potential will likely increase into early afternoon
   with a QLCS and embedded supercells capable of producing damaging
   winds and tornadoes. A tornado watch will likely be needed.

   DISCUSSION...Along a pronounced cold front to the south-southwest of
   a surface cyclone between TCL and SEM, convective intensities appear
   to be increasing to the central Gulf Coast. Pre-frontal cells have
   also increased over the past hour, and an increasing severe threat
   is anticipated as activity matures over the next 2-3 hours. While
   pervasive downstream cloud coverage is limiting boundary-layer
   heating in the confined warm-moist sector, 60s surface dew points
   are sufficient for weak to modest MLCAPE from Mobile Bay and the
   western FL Panhandle northward into south-central AL. This
   warm-moist sector will shift east through the afternoon and likely
   reach southwest GA to the eastern FL Panhandle. Low-level shear is
   quite strong with enlarged hodographs favoring
   mesocyclone/mesovortex development. Expectation is for a QLCS to
   evolve east through the afternoon with a threat for damaging winds
   and brief tornadoes. If semi-discrete supercells can form ahead of
   and merge into the QLCS, a longer-tracked tornado or two is
   possible.

   ..Grams/Hart.. 01/25/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX...

   LAT...LON   30388857 31858758 32418709 32478584 32218462 32008402
               31608382 30688419 29788531 30188614 30388857 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH