Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 53

   Mesoscale Discussion 0053
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0123 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

   Areas affected...Far Northern MS...Western/Middle TN...Southwest KY

   Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

   Valid 250723Z - 251130Z

   SUMMARY...Mixed winter precipitation is expected to continue for at
   least the next several hours from northern MS across western/middle
   TN and into southwest KY for the next several hours. Freezing rain
   rates over 0.03"/hour are possible.

   DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery has shown a notable increase in
   reflectivity across western TN over the past half hour. Based on
   radar data from KNQA, this area of increased reflectivity is
   occurring between 3000 and 4000 ft, which is near where refreezing
   into sleet would occur based on area forecast soundings.
   Consequently, this increased reflectivity is likely more related to
   bright band effects than increasing precipitation rates, while also
   indicating where the transition zone from freezing rain to sleet is
   currently located.

   Expectation is for this transition zone to drift
   northward/northwestward over the next few hours as the warm nose
   increases slightly amid continued warm-air advection. This warm-air
   advection will also foster continued precipitation, confirmed by
   regional radar imagery showing widespread upstream precipitation.
   All of these factors suggest that mixed winter precipitation will
   continue from northern MS across western/middle TN and into
   southwest KY for the next several hours. Freezing rain rates up to
   0.03"/hr. have already been observed at BNA, with similar (and
   higher) rates possible over the next few hours, particularly over
   western TN.

   ..Mosier.. 01/25/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

   LAT...LON   35938959 36848885 37428764 37458617 36678557 35328654
               34758871 35058981 35938959