Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 517

   Mesoscale Discussion 0517
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0325 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

   Areas affected...portions of western Oklahoma...south-central Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 222025Z - 222230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Damaging wind and severe hail risk to increase through the
   afternoon/evening.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity has initiated and expected to
   continue to form along the dryline across the Texas Panhandle this
   afternoon. Additional thunderstorm development is expected across
   the frontal boundary draped across western/central Kansas into the
   Oklahoma Panhandle. Ahead of this development, the air mass across
   western Oklahoma into central/eastern Kansas has been suppressed
   owing to weak forcing and stout MLCIN most of the afternoon.
   Temperatures are warming, with MLCIN eroding west to east across the
   Texas Panhandle as temperatures have climbed into the 80s. Aloft
   sounding analysis indicates, steep lapse rates and ample CAPE above
   the 850 mb inversion.

   Thunderstorm activity will gradually shift into this region by late
   afternoon/evening. A mix of multi-cell clusters and embedded
   supercells capable of large hail and damaging wind are expected. A
   watch will likely be needed in the coming hours to cover this risk.

   ..Thornton/Hart.. 04/22/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...

   LAT...LON   35509851 34599879 34269925 34209990 34279999 34999994
               35729994 36779994 37199980 37939913 38309859 38449818
               38439739 38409696 38119653 37569643 37129678 36089793
               35509851 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN