Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 516

   Mesoscale Discussion 0516
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0217 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

   Areas affected...southwestern Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 221917Z - 222115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Damaging wind and hail risk to increase through the
   afternoon/evening.

   DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows the dryline extending across the
   Texas Panhandle into far eastern New Mexico and southward to the
   Texas Big Bend as on 19z. Daytime heating under mostly sunny skies
   has led temperatures to rise into the 80s (some mid to upper 80s
   further south near the Mexico border). Satellite data shows towering
   cu, mainly near and adjacent to the higher terrain of the Cap Rock
   and Stockton Plateau. Morning observed soundings from AMA and LUB
   would suggest that convective temperatures are around 80-85 F, which
   in combination with increase in towering cu suggests initiation over
   the next 1-2 hours. 

   Initial development will likely be supercellular. Though flow aloft
   and deep layer shear are more marginal, MLCAPE around 1500-2500 J/kg
   and steep low to mid-level lapse rates will support potential for
   large hail (some very large 2"+) and damaging wind. Where discrete
   modes can interact with outflow/boundaries enhancing surface
   vorticity, a tornado could be possible. As storms increase in
   coverage this afternoon, clustering along outflows will tend to
   create mixed mode of supercells and multi-cells, with an increase in
   potential for damaging wind (some 70-80 mph). A watch will be needed
   to cover these threats soon.

   ..Thornton/Hart.. 04/22/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   30330324 30810329 32170307 33380255 33460253 34230188
               34610130 34640111 34370061 34050021 33809998 33559982
               33259958 32669958 32059983 30800052 29750114 29760201
               29730247 29540279 29650307 29910321 30330324 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN