Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 515

   Mesoscale Discussion 0515
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0214 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

   Areas affected...the South Carolina and North Carolina Piedmont

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 221914Z - 222145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorm activity may continue to
   gradually develop and strengthen through 5-7 PM EDT, accompanied by
   at least some risk for marginally severe hail and potentially
   damaging surface gusts.  This may remain fairly localized and a
   severe weather watch is not anticipated, but trends will continue to
   be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...Widely scattered thunderstorm development appears
   underway, perhaps supported by subtle mid-level cooling on the
   northwestern periphery of deep-layer ridging centered off the south
   Atlantic coast.  Based on forecast soundings, destabilization for a
   modestly moist and warming boundary layer remains inhibited by weak
   high-level lapse rates.  However, CAPE within the mixed-phase layer
   might still be sufficient to support small to marginally severe
   hail, aided by favorable shear beneath a 40 kt southwesterly jet
   streak around 500 mb.  

   Lower-level wind fields will remain more modest, but with at least
   some further boundary-layer destabilization through peak daytime
   heating, scattered thunderstorm activity will probably continue to
   intensify.  And downward mixing of momentum may lead to a few
   potentially damaging wind gusts, before storms weaken this evening.

   ..Kerr/Hart.. 04/22/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...

   LAT...LON   35098137 36287916 36537783 36447688 35667752 34977936
               34078076 34028224 35098137 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH