Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 514

   Mesoscale Discussion 0514
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0130 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

   Areas affected...parts of cntrl/sern LA...srn MS...swrn/cntrl AL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 221830Z - 222130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A gradual increase in thunderstorm activity and intensity
   appears probable through 4-6 PM CDT, with short-lived stronger
   storms posing a risk for locally severe hail and wind gusts.

   DISCUSSION...As low-amplitude mid-level troughing and more subtle
   smaller-scale perturbations progress through weak (on the order of
   10-20 kt) west-southwesterly mean flow across the Gulf Coast states,
   associated forcing for ascent appears likely to contribute to
   increasing thunderstorm development through 21-23Z.  Inhibition for
   moist boundary-layer parcels (with dew points near 70F) is becoming 
   increasingly negligible with continuing insolation, with modestly
   steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates contributing to CAPE around
   1500-2000+ J/kg.  

   Despite the rather modest to weak low-level and deep-layer shear,
   thunderstorms are likely to continue to slowly intensify within the
   destabilizing environment, into and beyond peak daytime heating. 
   Stronger updraft pulses may eventually pose increasing potential to
   produce severe hail and damaging downbursts.  As convection begins
   to consolidate and become more widespread, this threat should
   diminish, but strengthening convective outflow may continue to pose
   potential for gusty/locally damaging winds into early evening.

   ..Kerr/Hart.. 04/22/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   33068817 33028748 31578743 30978923 30369057 30979287
               31989295 32309176 31969019 33068817 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN