Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 512

   Mesoscale Discussion 0512
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1228 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025

   Areas affected...central/southern Mississippi...central/northern
   Alabama...south-central Tennessee

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 211728Z - 212000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Marginal risk for gusty winds and hail through the
   afternoon and evening.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity has been ongoing across a cold
   front extending through the southeastern states this morning. Ahead
   of this feature, breaks in the cloud cover have allowed daytime
   heating and modest MLCAPE around 500-1500 J/kg to develop. Flow
   across this region is fairly weak, though some deep layer shear
   20-35 knots is observed in surface objective analysis. As storms
   move north and eastward this afternoon, potential for a few areas of
   gusty winds and small hail will be possible. Severe potential
   appears too limited for watch issuance to be needed.

   ..Thornton/Hart.. 04/21/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...
   LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   32359100 34078895 34988766 35488672 35598618 35568570
               35518555 35418525 34988505 32058795 30378982 29949059
               30199162 30559195 30949207 32359100 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN