Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 506

   Mesoscale Discussion 0506
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0540 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

   Areas affected...portions of central and eastern Missouri into
   western Illinois

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 154...155...

   Valid 202240Z - 210015Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 154, 155 continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watches
   154-155. Severe gusts and QLCS tornadoes remain the primary threats.

   DISCUSSION...A pronounced QLCS has matured over the last several
   hours given increased deep-layer ascent with a strengthening surface
   cyclone. Several damaging/severe gusts have been observed (including
   measured gusts exceeding 55 kts in spots), along with multiple
   possible tornadoes. Ahead of the QLCS, a 60 kt southerly low-level
   jet persists per 21Z mesoanalysis, providing ample momentum for
   downward transport of strong to severe winds to the surface,
   supporting the potential for damaging gusts. Strong low-level shear
   remains in place, so a QLCS tornado threat remains with any
   mesovortices that develop. Currently, two predominant segments of
   the QLCS present a locally higher damaging gust/tornado threat given
   the prevalence of ongoing mesovortices.

   ..Squitieri.. 04/20/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...

   LAT...LON   36659273 38339276 39109269 40499223 41089173 41199058
               40919008 40188970 39528964 38808974 37989021 37359058
               36929090 36659125 36549158 36579237 36659273 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN