Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 504

   Mesoscale Discussion 0504
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0246 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

   Areas affected...Northwest/north-central Arkansas into southern
   Missouri

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 154...

   Valid 201946Z - 202115Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 154 continues.

   SUMMARY...Storms moving into north-central Arkansas and southern
   Missouri will pose a risk of tornadoes--some strong--and damaging
   winds. There are signs of discrete storms within the line in
   northwest/west-central Arkansas. These storms would bring the
   greatest tornado risk.

   DISCUSSION...KSRX radar imagery shows a few semi-discrete storms in
   far western Arkansas. MRMS CAPPI data also shows these storms
   intensifying. Mid-level ascent with southern extent will remain more
   limited, but deep-layer shear vectors slightly more perpendicular to
   the cold front will also favor discrete storms. VAD data from
   KSGF/KLZK/KLSX all have shown an increase in low-level SRH over the
   past couple of hours. This trend should continue, particularly in
   Missouri. Supercell and QLCS tornadoes, some of which could be
   strong, are all possible in this environment. Additionally, the more
   linear convective elements will also pose a threat of wind damage.

   ..Wendt.. 04/20/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...

   LAT...LON   36229452 36709452 37129414 37419288 37379162 36929141
               35529178 34889289 34619371 34509449 36229452 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN