Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 503

   Mesoscale Discussion 0503
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0223 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

   Areas affected...Southwest into central Missouri

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 154...

   Valid 201923Z - 202100Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 154 continues.

   SUMMARY...Storms moving along and near the lifting warm front will
   have an increased potential to produce a tornado given the
   development of a more favorable environment over the next few hours.

   DISCUSSION...Strong surface pressure falls have been noted in
   central Missouri over the past couple of hours. The surface low is
   deepening and should continue to track northeastward this afternoon.
   Low-level winds have also begun to respond to the deepening cyclone
   per regional VAD winds. Further increase in 850 mb winds are
   expected over the next few hours as well. As temperatures continue
   to rise south of the lifting warm front, storms tracking near and
   along the boundary will have an increased potential to produce a
   tornado--a strong tornado would be possible.

   ..Wendt.. 04/20/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...

   LAT...LON   37409490 37569488 37759470 38219413 38799372 39229316
               39449280 39539226 39539186 39349144 39059142 38509168
               37939282 36989415 36979482 37409490 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN