Mesoscale Discussion 0445
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025
Areas affected...east-central Georgia and west-central South
Carolina
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 110045Z - 110245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Large hail and strong winds will be possible with
thunderstorms moving across northeast Georgia into northwest South
Carolina. These widely scattered severe storms should decrease in
coverage and intensity with the loss of diurnal heating as they move
south and east. A downstream watch is not expected.
DISCUSSION...Severe thunderstorms continue east-southeast across
northern Georgia this evening in association with a cold, short-wave
trough rotating through the long-wave trough across the eastern US.
Steep mid-level lapse rates and long hodographs (and mostly straight
through the cloud-bearing layer) continue to support a large hail
threat with these storms. Additionally, strong, gusty winds,
potentially near severe criteria, will be possible with the
strongest downdrafts.
As these storms move east-southeast this evening, the expectation is
they will gradually weaken over the next several hours as the lower
levels of the atmosphere stabilize with the loss of diurnal heating.
However, strong, gusty winds and small hail should remain possible
with these storms into the late evening -- including in the vicinity
of Augusta likely around/between 10-11 PM EST. Despite the expected
downward intensity trends of the thunderstorms, a couple of severe
thunderstorms may be possible downstream of Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 137. Given the overall limited temporal and spatial scale of
the area, a new severe thunderstorm watch is not currently expected.
That said, trends will be monitored.
..Marsh/Smith.. 04/11/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...
LAT...LON 32878284 33528308 34148293 34668270 34668203 34198143
33448126 33038136 32808189 32728236 32878284
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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