Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 441

   Mesoscale Discussion 0441
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0256 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

   Areas affected...primarily from northern Mississippi into central
   and northern Alabama

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 101956Z - 102230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms are expected to develop later this afternoon and
   evening, with large hail and localized damaging gusts likely.

   DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a boundary/wind shift moving
   south across AR and toward the MS River. Ahead of this boundary,
   west/southwest winds are helping to maintain a plume of mid 50s F
   dewpoints which now extend into AL. Meanwhile, strong heating
   continues.

   The southerly periphery of the midlevel cooling is evident on
   visible imagery, indicated by the CU fields from northeast AR into
   TN.  As this cooling aloft rapidly pushes southeast, corridors of
   thunderstorm development are expected. The combination of strong
   cooling aloft overspreading the surface theta-e plume should result
   in corridors of severe storms. Long hodographs, cold temperatures
   aloft, and favorable time of day coincident with peak heating will
   favor both large hail and localized wind damage. Isolated
   significant hail cannot be ruled out with the strongest cells.

   ..Jewell/Gleason.. 04/10/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

   LAT...LON   33088987 33809069 34479082 34899082 35159058 35249007
               35078922 34958795 34788597 34648553 34198505 33378491
               32868515 32548548 32378640 32578804 33088987 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN