Mesoscale Discussion 0420 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0933 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Areas affected...northern and central Florida Concerning...Tornado Watch 104... Valid 111433Z - 111630Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 104 continues. SUMMARY...A broken band of thunderstorms continues moving eastward across northern Florida, where local severe-weather risk continues. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a loosely organized band of thunderstorms extending from the southeastern Georgia coast southwestward to the eastern Gulf of Mexico west of Tampa. Storms have remained largely sub-severe despite very favorable deep-layer shear, due to an overall lack of appreciable buoyancy. The 12Z TBW RAOB shows a deeply moist airmass, but very weak lapse rates, with several warm layers that hint at subdued updraft acceleration, confirming the character of convection at this time per radar reflectivity. With that said, filtered heating through high cirrus ahead of the convection has allowed heating to commence, with surface temperatures having risen a few degrees over the past 1 to 2 hours. Continued insolation/heating will allow destabilization eventually permit more unimpeded updrafts, and a corresponding increase in convective intensity/organization, aided by the favorable background kinematic environment. As such, local severe risk -- including isolated tornado potential -- should gradually increase over the next couple of hours. ..Goss.. 04/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX... LAT...LON 27768404 28948331 29978264 31038152 31068090 29788094 27888228 27568338 27768404