US Mesoscale Discussions

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 420

   Mesoscale Discussion 0420
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0933 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

   Areas affected...northern and central Florida

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 104...

   Valid 111433Z - 111630Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 104 continues.

   SUMMARY...A broken band of thunderstorms continues moving eastward
   across northern Florida, where local severe-weather risk continues.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a loosely organized band of
   thunderstorms extending from the southeastern Georgia coast
   southwestward to the eastern Gulf of Mexico west of Tampa.  Storms
   have remained largely sub-severe despite very favorable deep-layer
   shear, due to an overall lack of appreciable buoyancy.  The 12Z TBW
   RAOB shows a deeply moist airmass, but very weak lapse rates, with
   several warm layers that hint at subdued updraft acceleration,
   confirming the character of convection at this time per radar

   With that said, filtered heating through high cirrus ahead of the
   convection has allowed heating to commence, with surface
   temperatures having risen a few degrees over the past 1 to 2 hours. 
   Continued insolation/heating will allow destabilization eventually
   permit more unimpeded updrafts, and a corresponding increase in
   convective intensity/organization, aided by the favorable background
   kinematic environment.  As such, local severe risk -- including
   isolated tornado potential -- should gradually increase over the
   next couple of hours.

   ..Goss.. 04/11/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   27768404 28948331 29978264 31038152 31068090 29788094
               27888228 27568338 27768404 

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