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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 419

Mesoscale Discussion 419
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0419
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0554 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

   Areas affected...Eastern FL Panhandle into Northern FL and Far
   Southeast GA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 111054Z - 111300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated damaging gust and perhaps even a brief tornado
   are possible from the eastern Florida Panhandle into Northern
   Florida and Far Southeast Georgia over the next few hours.

   DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery shows a broken convective line
   extending from south-central GA southwestward through the far
   eastern FL Panhandle into the northwest Gulf of Mexico. A few
   stronger updrafts have been noted within the line, particularly with
   the cell now over Taylor County. Recent mesoanalysis and forecast
   soundings suggest that low-level stability remains in place for now,
   which will likely limit the overall severe potential in the near
   term. Even so, strong winds are in place (i.e. 50 kt was sampled at
   1 km AGL at KVAX), and a few downdrafts may able to penetrate the
   low-level stable layer.

   Additional low-level moisture advection is anticipated ahead of the
   line, contributing to airmass destabilization and a greater
   potential for surface-based storms, particularly over western
   portions of northern FL (in the vicinity of CTY). Isolated damaging
   gust and perhaps even a brief tornado are possible over the next few

   ..Mosier/Smith.. 04/11/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   29958395 30688328 30898245 30328176 29258286 29588359

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