Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 413

   Mesoscale Discussion 0413
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0901 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

   Areas affected...southeast LA...southern MS...southern AL and the FL
   Panhandle

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 101...

   Valid 101401Z - 101530Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 101 continues.

   SUMMARY...A swath of damaging winds (60-80 mph) along the apex of a
   fast moving bow echo will continue to moving into southern
   Mississippi the next couple of hours. Tornadoes also will be
   possible within the bowing line and in supercells ahead of the line.
   A downstream watch will likely be need into parts of southern
   Alabama and the Florida Panhandle int he next hour or so.

   DISCUSSION...A damaging bow echo near the southern MS/LA border is
   shifting east/northeast around 65-70 mph. While heating has been
   limited this morning downstream of ongoing convection, mid to upper
   60s F dewpoints are contributing to modest but sufficient
   instability. Given the strongly sheared environment, and evidence of
   a well-defined rear-inflow jet per KLCH VWP, the bow should maintain
   organization and continue to produce severe caliber winds in the
   60-80 mph range. Favorable low-level shear orthogonal to the bowing
   segment also will support a mesovortex tornado risk.

   An additional cluster of convection, including some supercells,
   ahead of the line across far southern MS/southeast LA will also pose
   a risk for damaging gusts and tornadoes. This activity will continue
   to lift north/northeast and eventually merge with the surging bow.
   This may increase tornado potential as mergers occur.

   Downstream from Tornado Watch 101 into southern AL and the western
   FL Panhandle, boundary-layer moisture remains more modest. However,
   mid-to-upper 60s F dewpoints near the coast should continue to
   spread northward with time and additional destabilization is
   expected over the next few hours. The severe risk should gradually
   increase across this region, with a damaging wind and tornado risk
   expected from late morning into the afternoon. A downstream watch
   will likely be needed within the next hour or so.

   ..Leitman.. 04/10/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   31309153 32028920 32158724 31868614 31218598 30648600
               30348612 30138676 29758876 29619021 29609094 29779166
               29999214 31309153