Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 413

   Mesoscale Discussion 0413
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0816 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

   Areas affected...Far northern Iowa into southeast Minnesota

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 103...

   Valid 140116Z - 140245Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 103 continues.

   SUMMARY...Areas near the warm front in southeast Minnesota and on
   the southern end of ongoing activity in north-central Iowa will see
   the greatest tornado risk over the next couple of hours.
   Large/very-large hail will be possible with supercells. Severe wind
   potential will increase with upscale growth that occurs.

   DISCUSSION...Strong low-level shear is noted on VAD data from KDMX
   and KARX. As nocturnal cooling should remain slow on account of
   theta-e advection, low-level thermodynamic profiles will remain
   supportive of tornadoes for another 3-4 hours or so. The main areas
   of tornado risk will be along the warm front in southeast Minnesota
   as well as a isolated supercell on the southern flank of the
   activity in north-central Iowa. In between these areas, storms have
   consolidated and grown upscale. This will pose a risk for additional
   QLCS circulations as well as severe winds. Large to very-large hail
   remains possible with the most discrete cells.

   ..Wendt.. 04/14/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

   LAT...LON   42829492 43149510 43429448 44109361 44479265 44469198
               44239163 43719160 42939208 42829492 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN