|
Mesoscale Discussion 413 | |
< Previous MD | |
![]() |
|
Mesoscale Discussion 0413 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0901 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Areas affected...southeast LA...southern MS...southern AL and the FL Panhandle Concerning...Tornado Watch 101... Valid 101401Z - 101530Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 101 continues. SUMMARY...A swath of damaging winds (60-80 mph) along the apex of a fast moving bow echo will continue to moving into southern Mississippi the next couple of hours. Tornadoes also will be possible within the bowing line and in supercells ahead of the line. A downstream watch will likely be need into parts of southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle int he next hour or so. DISCUSSION...A damaging bow echo near the southern MS/LA border is shifting east/northeast around 65-70 mph. While heating has been limited this morning downstream of ongoing convection, mid to upper 60s F dewpoints are contributing to modest but sufficient instability. Given the strongly sheared environment, and evidence of a well-defined rear-inflow jet per KLCH VWP, the bow should maintain organization and continue to produce severe caliber winds in the 60-80 mph range. Favorable low-level shear orthogonal to the bowing segment also will support a mesovortex tornado risk. An additional cluster of convection, including some supercells, ahead of the line across far southern MS/southeast LA will also pose a risk for damaging gusts and tornadoes. This activity will continue to lift north/northeast and eventually merge with the surging bow. This may increase tornado potential as mergers occur. Downstream from Tornado Watch 101 into southern AL and the western FL Panhandle, boundary-layer moisture remains more modest. However, mid-to-upper 60s F dewpoints near the coast should continue to spread northward with time and additional destabilization is expected over the next few hours. The severe risk should gradually increase across this region, with a damaging wind and tornado risk expected from late morning into the afternoon. A downstream watch will likely be needed within the next hour or so. ..Leitman.. 04/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... LAT...LON 31309153 32028920 32158724 31868614 31218598 30648600 30348612 30138676 29758876 29619021 29609094 29779166 29999214 31309153 |
|
Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home |