US Mesoscale Discussions

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 412

   Mesoscale Discussion 0412
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0716 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

   Areas affected...Southern LA into Far Southwest MS

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 100...101...

   Valid 101216Z - 101345Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 100, 101 continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for strong to severe (60 to 80 mph) gusts and
   tornadoes remains from southern Louisiana and far southwest

   DISCUSSION...Ongoing convective line exhibited a notable surge over
   the past half hour, with storm motion now estimated at 50-55 kt.
   Strong to severe gusts continue within this line, as evidenced by
   the impressive velocity signature from KLCH as well as the measured
   55 kt at WFO LCH. In addition to this surge, the storm motion has
   trended a bit more northeasterly, becoming even more perpendicular
   to the deep-layer vertical shear. Expectation is for this line to
   continue east-northeastward for at least the next few hours. Gusts
   from 60-80 mph remain possible within the line, with line-embedded
   tornadoes possible as well.

   Warm-air advection continues ahead of the line, with a few more
   organized cells manifesting within this regime. The overall
   parameter space, which is characterized by around 1000 J/kg of
   MLCAPE, 50 kt of deep-layer vertical shear, and 200 m2/s2 of 0-1 km
   SRH, supports a continued threat for supercells capable of all
   hazards, including tornadoes. Main deterrent for storm organization
   will be interference with other cells. The warm layer around 700 mb
   observed on the 12Z LIX sounding could act to suppress updraft
   intensity a bit as well. Even so, the general expectation is for the
   development of isolated to scattered supercells capable of all
   severe hazards.

   ..Mosier.. 04/10/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   29269268 29269333 29709336 30159313 30599310 30869337
               31069340 31219285 31359228 31399047 30849000 29579053
               29559192 29269268 

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