Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 409

   Mesoscale Discussion 0409
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0321 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

   Areas affected...Upper TX Coast/Southeast
   Texas...Southwest/South-Central Louisiana

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 99...

   Valid 100821Z - 101015Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 99
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Damaging wind gusts, some of which could exceed 75 mph,
   and line-embedded tornadoes are expected to become more common over
   the next few hours. A downstream Tornado Watch will likely be needed
   across far southeast Texas and southwest/south-central Louisiana.

   DISCUSSION...Convective trends within the ongoing line across
   southeast TX/Upper TX Coast continue to suggest organization into a
   more formidable squall line is underway. Current storm motion of
   this line is eastward at 40 kt, and this storm motion takes it to
   the edge of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 99 at 10Z. However, some
   additional acceleration is likely as the line becomes better
   organized, potentially taking it to the edge of the watch sooner. 

   An outflow boundary remains draped from northern Harris County
   eastward in Calcasieu Parish. Interaction with this boundary likely
   contributed to the mesovortex currently ongoing over northern Harris
   County. This boundary will likely act as the northern extent of the
   severe risk over the next few hours.

   Damaging wind gusts, some of which could exceed 75 mph, will remain
   the primary severe risk. However, line-embedded mesovorticies
   capable of tornadoes are also expected to become more common as the
   line moves into far southeast TX and southwest LA. As a result, a
   Tornado Watch will likely be needed downstream within the next hour.

   ..Mosier/Smith.. 04/10/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

   LAT...LON   30099569 30949474 31029225 30119185 29699259 29579325
               29489395 29099489 28699592 30099569