Mesoscale Discussion 0407 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Areas affected...Parts of south and southeast TX Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 96...98... Valid 100312Z - 100445Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 96, 98 continues. SUMMARY...An increasing severe-wind threat is expected late tonight, along with a continued hail risk. Downstream watch issuance is likely by midnight CDT. DISCUSSION...A supercell cluster near/east of Austin has shown signs of accelerating eastward late this evening, with a substantial hail core recently noted in MRMS data near Bastrop. MLCAPE of greater than 2000 J/kg and favorable deep-layer shear will continue to support large hail (potentially greater than 2 inches in diameter) with embedded supercells in the cluster. Consolidating outflows may also pose an increasing severe-wind threat as this cluster moves eastward late tonight. Farther southwest, deep convection has recently erupted across southern portions of the Hill Country into western parts of deep south TX, where a cold front has intercepted returning low-level moisture. Instability and deep-layer shear are favorable for supercells in this region as well, and a threat for large to very large hail will accompany these storms as they move eastward. Most recent CAM guidance suggests eventual upscale growth in this region, which will then move quickly east-northeastward toward the TX Gulf Coast with time, accompanied by a threat for severe wind gusts potentially exceeding 75 mph. Some tornado threat could also eventually evolve near the TX Coast overnight, as the upscale growing storm cluster encounters deeper moisture and stronger low-level flow/shear. With a substantial severe threat expected to eventually spread toward the TX Gulf Coast, downstream watch issuance is likely by midnight CDT. ..Dean/Hart.. 04/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX... LAT...LON 28050036 29709916 30349751 31209714 31319586 31049522 30479511 30159517 29749541 28869659 27819887 27519970 28050036