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Mesoscale Discussion 405 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0405 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Areas affected...Parts of south TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 100057Z - 100300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Severe storm development is expected later this evening. Large hail will be possible initially, with an increasing severe wind risk with time. DISCUSSION...The western portion of surface boundary is beginning to move southward as a cold front across parts of the southwest TX Hill Country this evening. Later this evening, this front will begin intercepting rich low-level moisture which is streaming westward across south-central TX. Increasing moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support MUCAPE increasing above 2000 J/kg near the front. As this occurs, increasing ascent ahead of a mid/upper-level trough over west TX will aid in storm development near and to the immediate cool side of the boundary. Strong mid-upper level southwesterly flow will support effective shear of greater than 50 kt region wide, and initial development may evolve quickly into supercells with a threat of very large hail. However, quick upscale growth will be possible, as convection moves into a region where rather strong heating and steepening of low-level lapse rates occurred earlier today, a scenario supported by recent HRRR and RRFS runs. Should this occur, an increasing threat for significant severe-wind gusts (possibly in the 70-85 mph range) could begin spreading east/northeastward later tonight. Watch issuance is likely by 03Z due to the increasing hail and severe-wind potential. ..Dean/Hart.. 04/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO... LAT...LON 28020041 29839871 29859764 29819654 29479637 29159619 28659594 26889742 26689838 26649916 26729941 27079969 28020041 |
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