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Mesoscale Discussion 400 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0400 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Areas affected...portions of central Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 092055Z - 092230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing behind an initial round of storms, with large hail and damaging gusts the main threat. A couple instances of 2+ inch hail and perhaps a tornado are also possible. A new WW issuance will likely be needed to address the impending severe threat. DISCUSSION...In the wake of earlier storms, some airmass modification is underway along the intersection of the dryline and multiple outflow boundaries. Continued surface heating and greater ascent from an approaching mid-level trough should encourage the initiation of strong to severe storms along the aforementioned boundaries this afternoon into the evening hours. Long, straight hodographs suggest splitting supercells will likely be the predominant storm mode, with large hail and damaging gusts the main threats. A few instances of 2+ inch hail are also possible wherever storms can interact with a relatively more pristine airmass, where mid-level lapse rates remain steep. If a supercell can traverse one of the outflow boundaries for an appreciable period of time, a tornado cannot be ruled out, though the tornado threat should be limited by a lack of stronger low-level shear. Nonetheless, at least a few robust storms may develop over portions of central TX this afternoon into evening, and a WW issuance may be needed in the next few hours. ..Squitieri/Thompson.. 04/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 31149965 31079829 30759712 30059710 29679775 29679863 29799942 30019990 30559981 31149965 |
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