Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 400

   Mesoscale Discussion 0400
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0355 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024

   Areas affected...portions of central Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 092055Z - 092230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing behind an initial round of
   storms, with large hail and damaging gusts the main threat. A couple
   instances of 2+ inch hail and perhaps a tornado are also possible. A
   new WW issuance will likely be needed to address the impending
   severe threat.

   DISCUSSION...In the wake of earlier storms, some airmass
   modification is underway along the intersection of the dryline and
   multiple outflow boundaries. Continued surface heating and greater
   ascent from an approaching mid-level trough should encourage the
   initiation of strong to severe storms along the aforementioned
   boundaries this afternoon into the evening hours. Long, straight
   hodographs suggest splitting supercells will likely be the
   predominant storm mode, with large hail and damaging gusts the main
   threats. A few instances of 2+ inch hail are also possible wherever
   storms can interact with a relatively more pristine airmass, where
   mid-level lapse rates remain steep. If a supercell can traverse one
   of the outflow boundaries for an appreciable period of time, a
   tornado cannot be ruled out, though the tornado threat should be
   limited by a lack of stronger low-level shear.

   Nonetheless, at least a few robust storms may develop over portions
   of central TX this afternoon into evening, and a WW issuance may be
   needed in the next few hours.

   ..Squitieri/Thompson.. 04/09/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   31149965 31079829 30759712 30059710 29679775 29679863
               29799942 30019990 30559981 31149965