Mesoscale Discussion 0397 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Areas affected...Northeast TX...southeast OK...western AR Concerning...Tornado Watch 113...114... Valid 042033Z - 042200Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 113, 114 continues. SUMMARY...Maturing supercells will pose an increasing tornado threat this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Multiple supercells have developed over the last hour across northeast TX, in the immediate vicinity of a slow-moving cold front that extends from southeast OK into central TX. The 18Z SHV sounding is representative of the environment across the region, with very rich low-level moisture, large to extreme MLCAPE, deep-layer shear sufficient for supercells, and a rather strong low-level jet. A corridor of increasing short-term tornado threat is evident from northeast TX into far southeast OK and western AR, where locally backed surface winds are resulting in 0-1 km SRH of 150-250 m2/s2. This combination of favorable buoyancy, boundary-layer moisture, and relatively strong low-level shear/SRH will support an increasing tornado threat with any sustained supercells, including significant (EF2+) tornado potential. Large hail and damaging winds could also accompany the strongest cells. ..Dean.. 04/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD... LAT...LON 31889648 32739620 33549548 34629455 35499358 35179295 34369299 32779455 31879567 31889648 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
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