Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 392

   Mesoscale Discussion 0392
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0257 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024

   Areas affected...North-Central into Northeast TX

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 93...

   Valid 090757Z - 090930Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 93
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Isolated damaging gusts will remain possible for the next
   few hours from north-central Texas into northeast Texas.

   DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a meso-low coincident
   with the ongoing thunderstorm over northeast portions of the
   Metroplex. An outflow-augmented cold front extends southwestward
   from this low into southwest TX. A warm front also extends eastward
   from this low into northeast TX. Airmass to the east of the ongoing
   thunderstorm is characterized by low-level stability beneath steep
   mid-level lapse rates and moderate deep-layer vertical shear. This
   environment supports the persistence of the ongoing storms as they
   continue eastward, likely trending more elevated with time. Even so,
   occasionally strong to severe downdrafts could still reach the
   surface over the next hour or two, particularly as this storm
   interacts with the warm front (as evidenced by a recent gust of 53
   kt at KDFW).

   Farther south and west, the airmass is not as hostile to
   surface-based storms and additional development along the
   southeastward-progressing front/outflow is possible. However, the
   notably dry mid-levels will likely act as a deterrent for sustained
   updrafts, limiting the likelihood for mature updrafts and keeping
   the overall severe potential low.

   ..Mosier.. 04/09/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...

   LAT...LON   33129718 33689628 33749568 33329513 32849509 32019733
               32009830 32559830 33129718