Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 391

   Mesoscale Discussion 0391
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0418 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025

   Areas affected...ern OK...nwrn AR...swrn MO

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 111...

   Valid 040918Z - 041115Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 111
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorm development will continue to rapidly
   spread east-northeastward toward the northeastern Oklahoma into
   southwestern Missouri Interstate 44 corridor, with a few cells
   posing a risk for severe hail.  Trends are being monitored for the
   possibility of an additional severe weather watch.

   DISCUSSION...Strongest lower/mid-tropospheric forcing for ascent
   ahead of a short wave perturbation progressing northeast of the
   Texas South Plains is forecast to rapidly spread northeast of the
   Red River toward the Ozark Plateau through daybreak.  This includes
   lift associated with warm advection near the northern periphery of a
   plume of more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer, which may also
   spread north of the Red River through 11-13Z.  As this occurs,
   strongest thunderstorms may tend to redevelop north-northeastward
   into the Interstate 44 vicinity of northeastern Oklahoma into
   southwestern Missouri, where similar thermodynamic and convective
   layer shear profiles as upstream may support a continuing risk for
   severe hail.

   ..Kerr.. 04/04/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   36339593 37199321 36069269 34639485 33899592 33989758
               34889773 36339593 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN